Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

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The Bitcoin vs. Ethereum debate between maximalists on both sides often generates more heat than light. Rather than relying on narratives, let's look at what the numbers say. All data below is at the time of this being published.

Over the past year, Bitcoin returned -8.8% while Ethereum was essentially flat at +0.1% gain. But that headline comparison misses crucial context around risk. When we adjust for risk using the Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of volatility, Ethereum scores 0.31 compared to Bitcoin's -0.12 (averaged over the last 365 days). Ethereum delivered better risk-adjusted returns despite a brutal year for both assets.

The volatility difference is stark. Ethereum's annualized volatility hit 74.4%, nearly double Bitcoin's 41.3%. This confirms what many traders intuitive know, tha is ETH moves harder in both directions. That higher volatility makes Ethereum's slight outperformance more impressive, though it also explains why many investors prefer Bitcoin's relative stability.

Drawdowns tell the pain story. Ethereum suffered a peak-to-trough decline of -55.8% during the period, compared to Bitcoin's -32.1%. If you bought ETH at the wrong time, you sat through a gut-wrenching drawdown nearly twice as severe as what BTC holders experienced.

The two assets maintain a rolling 30-day correlation averaging 0.82, currently sitting at 0.91. They move together most of the time, which limits diversification benefits from holding both.

Both assets exhibit fat-tailed return distributions where extreme moves occur far more often than normal distributions predict, which is a critical consideration for risk models especially ones used in traditional equity markets. Analysts beware.

Full analysis with numbers below

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum risk analysis

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